Vol. 23, No. 3 | Aug. 18, 2010 | Go to Charts

by Carl Janssens, ASA | Aircraft Bluebook — Price Digest

There should be some optimism in our industry.

Buyers and sellers are finally coming to terms with what the market will bear for a given aircraft. And with that, the pre-owned aircraft market is seeing more completed deals. The gridlock of available inventory is starting to show some movement.

Values, on the other hand, remain soft with few signs of recovery.

Some of the factors that could be making an indirect impact on values relate to finance. Major lenders are adapting to the 20-year rule. That is, the age of the aircraft and term of the loan cannot exceed 20 years. Prior to the economic meltdown, it was a 30-year rule. Of course, there are exceptions to every rule, but this 20-year rule will continue to have a softening effect on value in the pre-owned market.

Another factor that might have a driving effect is the increase in cash buyers. Cash is a hard snare to turn away from if you are selling an aircraft. In return, the cash buyer will demand exceptional equipment at a discounted price.

To a lesser extent, aircraft foreclosures might have an impact on the industry. Time and condition do account for values in the marketplace. If an aircraft is sold outside the box of reason, then civil litigation will probably ensue.

You, the market itself, the live dynamics of what makes this whole process happen, may have your own opinion too. Let us know your thoughts.

Jet

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 3
Decreased — 595
Stable — 281

Late-model, large-cabin aircraft are retaining value. The medium-range business jet, such as the Lear 45 series and the Hawker 800 series, continues to show signs of normal depreciation.

Citation X and the Sovereign were off from last quarter. Bombardier Global Express and the 5000 remained steady while the Challenger 604 declined. The Falcon 7X held steady, but the Falcon 50 was down. Values for late-model Gulfstreams held steady, yet values for earlier models were off.

Turboprop

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 25
Decreased — 135
Stable — 434

The ag market still rules in this category because the very boutique and limited markets hold on to value.

One surprise this quarter is the DeHavilland Twin Otter DHC-6. Limited inventories, great demand and a new production line have brought a burst of life into the values of these aircraft. Check the values in the new fall 2010 release of Aircraft Bluebook.

Late-model King Airs were down slightly.

Multi

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 12
Decreased — 26
Stable — 618

Time and condition will play the upper hand in this market, especially when dealing with aging aircraft. Anything more than 20 years old in this market is a senior citizen. For the most part, values for this segment remained unmoved when compared to the previous quarter.

Single

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 217
Decreased — 200
Stable — 2078

As with their twin brethren, time and condition also have the upper hand in supporting value. Do not just look at the sale price. Also pay close attention to restorations, upgrades and modifications.

For the most part, the single category was stable.

Helicopter

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 57
Decreased — 221
Stable — 761

Helicopters are continuing to show some signs of stabilization with the majority of this segment remaining unchanged in reported values when compared to the previous quarter.

Visit us at the 2010 NBAA Annual Meeting & Convention

Aircraft Bluebook will be in booth No. 7626 at NBAA 2010 on Oct. 19-21.

Aircraft Bluebook – Price Digest here for you

Please contact Aircraft Bluebook if you have any specific concern in a particular aircraft market. We will be happy to share with you the most up-to-date information available for your market segment. Call us toll-free at 877-531-1450 or direct at 913-967-1913.

[Go to Charts.]

Vol. 23, No. 2 | May 26, 2010 | Go to Charts

by Carl Janssens, ASA | Aircraft Bluebook — Price Digest

Finally, the pre-owned aircraft market moved in a positive direction in the first quarter of 2010. Late-model, large-cabin, long-range aircraft were selling at or better than values published in the Aircraft Bluebook.

External factors such as increased sales, a slight decline of available inventory and world market competition could all be considered causes for the improvement. Although this early indication of a slow recovery is in progress, it is too early to celebrate. Any positive sign going forward is far better than where the used aircraft market has been.

With the exception of the late-model, large-cabin class, most of the other business aircraft are not yet recovering in value. The good news is that values are showing more stability. Market activity is on the rise leaving a more optimistic perception that values are not exposed to the risks experienced in the last twenty months.

A couple considerations might be affecting values in the pre-owned aircraft market. The first is available credit for qualified buyers, and the second is the price of fuel. Part of the dilemma that played a major role in an injured economy was the lack of finance. Now, aircraft lenders are able to enable more transactions. This new reality will move the aircraft market into better days. At the same time, credit could indicate how aircraft values will rebound as elements of risks financial institutions are willing to take will have an indirect impact on value. Energy and the price of crude oil is the other factor that will impact further recovery. As long as there are no surprising jumps in the price of crude oil in a limited time frame, the aircraft market will be able to absorb the daily fluctuations in oil prices and prevent the cost of fuel from becoming a deterrent in this industry’s recovery.

Jet

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 5
Decreased — 410
Stable — 462

As reported above, late-model, large-cabin aircraft are retaining value. Select Gulfstream G550s were up $1 million with the remainder of these aircraft holding steady in value. The Gulfstream G-V market remained unchanged. The G-IV values were off an average of $500,000. Bombardier Global Express and the Global 5000 also held steady while inventories for sale decreased. The Bombardier Lear 45 series was off $200,000 on average. The Cessna Citation Excel series was down an average of $200,000 as well. Light jets such as the Beech Premier were off an average of $200,000. The Hawker 400 was down $100,000. The Citation 525 was off slightly as well.

Turboprop

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 55
Decreased — 86
Stable — 452

The ag market values improved slightly when compared to the previous quarter. Late-model Beechcraft King Airs remained stable. Earlier models generally also held on, though some models trended downward. Reduction in production for the King Air series might have some positive benefits. In time, limited production could cause limited inventories for sale in the pre-owned market, which would then cause values to strengthen. The Cessna Conquest was stable for yet another quarter. The Piper Meriden was down $50,000.

Multi

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 29
Decreased — 103
Stable — 523

The Beech Baron family of piston twins achieved some slight gains in value. Early-model 58s were up slightly. Select Baron 55 models also experienced narrow gains. For the most part, however, decreases in value were slight but across the board. Cessna 310 values were down, and the Diamond Twin Star was off $10,000.

Single

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 311
Decreased — 267
Stable — 1909

Select ag planes generally made slight gains. Values of early-model Beech Bonanza A36s were up from the previous quarter. Late-model Cessna 172 Skyhawks and Cessna 206s reported slightly higher values for the summer release of Aircraft Bluebook. Commanders and Mooneys were generally off $5,000 to $10,000 when compared to the previous quarter. The majority of aircraft in this reporting segment remained stable.

Helicopter

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 52
Decreased — 170
Stable — 809

The Enstrom F28/280 series improved slightly from the previous quarter.  Compared to the previous quarter, select models of the Eurocopter Twin Star were off $100,000. The Bell 430 also declined an average of $300,000 from previous reported values. The Enstrom 480 was down $50,000. The helicopter segment remained stable for the most part.

Aircraft Bluebook–Price Digest here for you

Please contact Aircraft Bluebook if you have any specific concern in a particular aircraft market. We will be happy to share with you the most up-to-date information available for your market segment. Call us toll-free at 877-531-1450 or direct at 913-967-1913.

[Go to Charts.]

Vol. 23, No. 1 | Feb. 17, 2010 | Go to Charts

by Carl Janssens, ASA | Aircraft Bluebook — Price Digest

In the pre-owned aircraft market, bottom feeders are like red herrings.

Bottom feeders — corporate aircraft that have no significant issues with their history, maintenance or condition and are marketed below Bluebook wholesale values — continue to be great opportunities for the fortunate few who buy without a blink of an eye.

They also lead buyers into a false perception of value that only competition in the market can correct.

Reasons why such aggressive marketing maneuvers continue to appear are wide and varied. When a corporate aircraft with no issues with its condition, equipment or history sells for a low price, Aircraft Bluebook–Price Digest investigates to learn the whole story. Capital gains, tax shelters, foreclosures, and even new deliveries are just a few reasons behind these significantly discounted offerings. One common denominator in all of this is the element of time. An aggressive discount in price represents interest in an immediate sale. True, this moves the economy, but such a transaction does not fit the definition of Fair Market, which the Bluebook reports as Average Retail.

Pre-owned aircraft sales activity slowly is showing stability in the market, but news of another bottom feeder eclipses these transactions, and market perception has to be rebooted like after a computer crash.

Serious buyers are starting to see beyond all the drama when an unrealistic offering is being denied by the seller. Ready-to-fly, well-equipped aircraft with fresh maintenance are bringing some normalcy to aircraft values.

Although the market is still nothing to brag about, and trends still might adjust down, this market is nothing like the roller coaster ride of 2009. As the market slowly improves, attention to navigating through the economy is migrating from ground to traffic awareness.

Jet

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 2
Decreased — 455
Stable — 419

Late-model, large-cabin aircraft are retaining value. Don’t be surprised if supply and demand create more competition between buyers. This competition will start a slow upward tick in pricing. Now is really the time to buy in this market.

Citation X values remained steady while the Sovereign was off 2 percent from last quarter. Bombardier Global Express and the 5000 remained steady while the Challenger 604 declined 2.5 percent. The Falcon 7X held steady while the Falcon 50 was down 5 percent from last quarter. Late-model Gulfstreams held steady while earlier models were off 5 percent from the winter Bluebook.

Turboprop

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 13
Decreased — 62
Stable — 518

The ag market continued to show no changes in value when compared to the previous quarter. Late-model King Airs remained stable while earlier models generally also held on without trending. The Cessna Caravan was stable with later models down 1 percent or less. Some slight rays of sunshine were select Piper Cheyennes experiencing slight increases from the previous quarter.

Multi

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 30
Decreased — 105
Stable — 521

For the most part, late-model twins, the Beech Baron and Piper Seneca held steady for yet another quarter. Early-model twins such as the Cessna 421 and Beech Duke were off 2 percent from the winter Bluebook.

Single

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 272
Decreased — 618
Stable — 1581

Ag planes generally remained unchanged.  Amphibious models such as the Lake were up slightly in trending. The Piper Arrow was also in the positive column while most Maules were off slightly. Late-model Bonanzas and Cessna singles held steady while the Diamond Star was up 5 percent or more. For the most part, values remained steady.

Helicopter

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 13
Decreased — 99
Stable — 904

Helicopter models reported in Bluebook continue to level off. Piston helicopters such as Enstrom and Robinson were up slightly through select model years. Some turbines, such as the Eurocopter EC135, were off 5 percent from the previous quarter. Overall, the majority of models reported in Bluebook remained stable.

Aircraft Bluebook–Price Digest here for you

Please contact Aircraft Bluebook if you have any specific concern in a particular aircraft market. We will be happy to share with you the most up-to-date information available for your market segment. Call us toll-free at 877-531-1450 or direct at 913-967-1913.

[Go to Charts.]