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Marketline Newsletter
For over 50 years, Aircraft Bluebook has been providing valuable information designed to give the most accurate, comprehensive and timely assessment of the aircraft market.

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MARKETLINE SUMMER 2013 EDITION

Vol. 26, No. 2 | June 10, 2013 | Go to Charts


IN THIS ISSUE

Bluebook Perspectives: YTD Pre-owned Transactions & Prices Continue Down
Into the Blue: Aircraft Bluebook At-a-Glance, Cessna 177 Cardinal Series
Ask Aircraft Bluebook: Where can I find the Aircraft Spec Charts and other infomation formerly in print?

[Download the full Summer 2013 Marketline Newsletter and All Charts.]

YTD PRE-OWNED TRANSACTIONS & PRICES CONTINUE DOWN:

By Dennis Rousseau | President and Founder | AircraftPost.com

When viewing a random selection of pre-owned transactions for the first 5-months of 2013, the number of sales are trending down 15 percent when compared to the same period in 2012. Actual selling prices also are down on average 15 percent, while inventory levels for the same group of business jets has increased 20 percent.

As you consider these facts we must also take into account other mitigating factors, such as the year of manufacture of the aircraft sold, cost of the aircraft when it was new, the cost new today, as well as nominal depreciation, et al. By way of example, an aircraft that sold new in 2005 for $44 million and today sells for $32 million is not too far off of a 4 percent per year depreciation schedule. From another perspective, it has retained 73 percent of its original cost , which falls in line with a 30-year useful life.

A number of factors continue to affect growth and stability in our industry – some are geopolitical, others are related to the global financial debacle that started in 2008.

Within our industry, where 250 aircraft were once considered a standard production run, we now have 400+ that will eventually compete in the pre-owned market. Therein in the case of ‘over-production’, we face dynamics that were once not a factor, such as eroding residual values. As the business jet fleet ages and pre-owned inventory increases, will pricing continue to erode? What effect will new aircraft pricing and shorter delivery times have on the pre-owned market?

Aircraft Bluebook – Price Digest here for you 

Please contact Aircraft Bluebook if you have any specific concern in a particular aircraft market. We will be happy to share with you the most up-to-date information available for your market segment. Call us toll-free at 877-531-1450 or direct at 913-967-1956.

[Go to Charts]

CHARTS — June 10, 2013

CURRENT MARKET STRENGTH

Click to View Full Size ChartCMS represents an aircraft’s current strength in the market.  An A+ rating indicates the aircraft is enjoying a very firm market.  Prices for an A+ aircraft are steadily rising, and holding times are very short or nonexistent.  At the opposite end of the spectrum, a C- aircraft is one experiencing a very soft market.  Its price is commonly discounted, and it often sets on the ramp in excess of eight months before selling.  It is important to remember that Current Market Strength is not a forecast.  It is valid only at  Marketline’s effective date of release.

MARKETLINE CHARTS

Click to View Full Size ChartAll of the listed aircraft have a composite score that is presented in the Used Aircraft Market graph.  Data points are represented in relationship to the respective new delivered historical price that is equal to 100%.  The measure of change is reported in the actual percentage of value in relation to new.  The delta between reporting periods can be concluded as the percentage of change.

Click here to download a PDF of the full Marketline Newsletter, including articles and all Charts.

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MARKETLINE SPRING 2013 EDITION

Vol. 26, No. 1 | May 2, 2013 | Go to Charts


IN THIS ISSUE

Bluebook Perspectives: Pre-Owned Transactions on the Rise
Into the Blue: Aircraft Bluebook At-a-Glance, Piper Malibu Meridian, PA-46-500TP series
Ask Aircraft Bluebook: Can I access Aircraft Bluebook from outside the United States?

[Download the full Spring 2013 Marketline Newsletter and All Charts.]

INTO THE BLUE:
Aircraft Bluebook At-a-Glance -
Piper Malibu Meridian, PA-46-500TP series

by Chris Reynolds, ASA | Aircraft Bluebook — Price Digest®

Aircraft Bluebook-Price Digest At-a-Glance has reviewed the current market status of the Piper PA-46-500TP series aircraft. Research for this study was obtained in part from Aircraft Bluebook, Aircraft Bluebook’s Historical Value Reference, the FAA’s registry web site and various trade publications.

Demand

The Meridian is a five-seat (six including the pilot), single-engine aircraft powered by a Pratt & Whitney PT6A-42A turbo-prop. It is the pressurized turbo-prop version of the piston-engine powered Malibu line (albeit with physical changes such as:  larger wings, tail and higher TOGW) which began entering service in 2001. Early Meridians were offered with options for the Avidyne FlightMax Entegra avionics suite and then starting in 2009 the Garmin G1000 Avionics suite (which is now standard). The average airframe time for a mid 2000s model year is approximately 1,100 hours.

There is an active fleet of approximately 500 aircraft worldwide, and at the time of writing this article, around 50 various year models of the Piper Meridians are available for sale in the major aircraft trade publications (approximately 10% of the total fleet). Over the last year, approximately 200 Meridians were sold with an average time on market being around 120 days.

Pricing

Current offerings for Meridians range in asking price from $600 thousand to $2 million. The average asking price for a 2005 model year is around $1 million. Time, equipment and condition not only impact the asking price, but selling price as well. According to Piper’s website, a new Meridian with the G1000 suite lists for $2,176,325. The Spring 2013 Aircraft Bluebook lists a 2003 Piper Malibu Meridian with a reported retail price of $900,000.

Historical Values

Using the information above as an example; a 2003 Piper Malibu Meridian, whose market values have been tracked since the first quarter of 2003, was reported new with a standard list price of $1,750,000. Aircraft Bluebook-Price Digest’s Historical Value Reference has demonstrated the Piper Malibu Meridian’s market value performance by quarter in the graph for this 2003 model.

Other historical values can be obtained at Aircraft Bluebook’s website, www.aircraftbluebook.com.

 

Aircraft Bluebook – Price Digest here for you 

Please contact Aircraft Bluebook if you have any specific concern in a particular aircraft market. We will be happy to share with you the most up-to-date information available for your market segment. Call us toll-free at 877-531-1450 or direct at 913-967-1956.

[Go to Charts.]

MARKETLINE SPRING 2013 EDITION

Vol. 26, No. 1 | March 11, 2013 | Go to Charts


IN THIS ISSUE

Bluebook Perspectives: Pre-Owned Transactions on the Rise
Into the Blue: Aircraft Bluebook At-a-Glance, Piper Malibu Meridian, PA-46-500TP series
Ask Aircraft Bluebook: Can I access Aircraft Bluebook from outside the United States?

[Download the full Spring 2013 Marketline Newsletter and All Charts.]

PRE-OWNED TRANSACTIONS ON THE RISE:

By Dennis Rousseau | President and Founder | AircraftPost.com

For the fifth consecutive year, pre-owned transactions for current generation business jets have shown a year over year increase. However, market inventories, expressed as a percentage of the fleet, are on the rise, while the average selling price continues a downward trend.

When we factor age-based depreciation over a 30-year lifecycle, we can garner some semblance of normalized value at any given point. However, when we consider economic events such as those over the last four years, values and selling prices can take a drastic downward turn. At the end of 2012, the average selling price for pre-owned, current production aircraft was reflecting a 17% decline in market value. Out of production aircraft slipped further to 33% under normalized values.

There are a number of factors contributing to the state of our market(s). The increase in transactions and current pricing suggests buyers are realizing substantial value in select aircraft. For example the G200, with its stand-up cabin, 3000 nm range and Pro Line 4 cockpit, had a record 27 transactions in 2012, an increase of over 300% from 2011. A 2008 year model, with a list price new of $22M, sold for $10M in the 4th Quarter 2012, with under 800 hours total time. The same $10M could buy a 2001 Challenger 604 or Falcon 2000 with 3500 hours, or a 2004 Challenger 300 with 7500 hours. Buyers seem to be looking more laterally with the perception of ‘how much value can I buy for the same dollar.’ Obviously, the newer aircraft open up greater financing opportunities as well.

Compared to 2008, when pre-owned aircraft were selling for more than they cost new, 2012 continued to adjust prices to a level commensurate with the global economic climate. On average, pre-owned business jets are selling 25% under normalized markets, which seems to be one of the driving factors for the increased transactions. Further, according to GAMA new business jet deliveries for the first nine months of 2011 and 2012 were 427 and 428 respectively. When current production pre-owned aircraft are selling for 40% less than they cost new, this can also stimulate the number of pre-owned transactions.

For the start of 2013, pre-owned inventories are on the rise; however activity levels (pre-purchase inspections, LOIs, Offers to Purchase, et al) are showing formidable signs for consistent activity.

Aircraft Bluebook – Price Digest here for you 

Please contact Aircraft Bluebook if you have any specific concern in a particular aircraft market. We will be happy to share with you the most up-to-date information available for your market segment. Call us toll-free at 877-531-1450 or direct at 913-967-1956.

[Go to Charts.]

CHARTS — March 11, 2013

CURRENT MARKET STRENGTH

Click to View Full Size ChartCMS represents an aircraft’s current strength in the market.  An A+ rating indicates the aircraft is enjoying a very firm market.  Prices for an A+ aircraft are steadily rising, and holding times are very short or nonexistent.  At the opposite end of the spectrum, a C- aircraft is one experiencing a very soft market.  Its price is commonly discounted, and it often sets on the ramp in excess of eight months before selling.  It is important to remember that Current Market Strength is not a forecast.  It is valid only at  Marketline’s effective date of release.

MARKETLINE CHARTS

Click to View Full Size ChartAll of the listed aircraft have a composite score that is presented in the Used Aircraft Market graph.  Data points are represented in relationship to the respective new delivered historical price that is equal to 100%.  The measure of change is reported in the actual percentage of value in relation to new.  The delta between reporting periods can be concluded as the percentage of change.

Click here to download a PDF of the full Marketline Newsletter, including articles and all Charts.

  Click to View Full Size Chart Click to View Full Size ChartClick to View Full Size Chart Click to View Full Size Chart Click to View Full Size Chart Click to View Full Size Chart